My draft was last night and here are the results. I had the 12th pick in the draft.
1st round – Felix Hernandez
2nd round – Max Scherzer
3rd round – Johnny Cueto
4th round – Craig Kimbrel
5th round – Greg Holland
6th round – Jake Arrieta
7th round – Dellin Betances
8th round – Mark Melancon
9th round – Mike Fiers
10th round – Jonathan Lucroy
11th round – Ben Zobrist
12th round – Daniel Murphy
13th round – Alcides Escobar
14th round – Erick Aybar
15th round – Adam Eaton
16th round – Martin Prado
17th round – Joe Mauer
18th round – Angel Pagan
19th round – Scooter Gennett
20th round – Michael Cuddyer
21st round – Nori Aoki
22nd round – Ender Inciarte
23rd round – Joe Panik
I went with Scherzer in the second hoping that Chris Sale will last until the end of the third round because of his foot injury. He ended up getting picked up 6 picks before my third round pick.
Lucroy was a steal for me. He is projected to score 65 runs with a .298 average and he was available in the 10th round.
I am projected to finish first in the league. I did a good job of reaching my goals for 2015 projections.
Goal———–Proj
1000 Runs 1007
200 Stolen Bases 173
.285 Average .286
95 Wins 84
120 Saves 171
1500 Strikeouts 1433
2.95 ERA 2.79
1.10 WHIP 1.06
I am pretty happy with the draft. I need to be on the lookout for a catcher, just in case Lucroy goes down. Other than that, I think that I am pretty well covered. I ended up with more closers than I was planning on, but they were available. That is why I did not quite get to my strikeout and win goals.
Photo: Chris Carlson, AP
The Brewers are getting set for the season, now just 2 weeks away. The position battles have been heating up. The rotation is almost set and all but one of the bullpen spots are spoken for. In other news, manager Ron Roenicke’s contract has been extended.
The Brewers exercised their 2016 option on Roenicke’s contract. That will take away a distraction, as he will not have to answer questions about whether or not he will be back in 2016, especially after last season’s fade down the stretch. GM Doug Melvin cited Roenicke’s winning percentage (.517) and compared it to Joe Madden’s (.517), Bob Melvin’s (.516), and Bruce Bochy’s (.502). Roenicke has had success in Milwaukee, and Melvin is counting on more of it this season.
The Brewers have many of their players returning to their positions. The Brewers are planning on carrying 12 pitchers, which leaves room for 13 position players. LF Khris Davis, CF Carlos Gomez, RF Ryan Braun, and OF Gerardo Parra are set in the outfield. On the infield, there is 3B Aramis Ramirez, SS Jean Segura, 2B Scooter Gennett, and newcomer 1B Adam Lind. C Jonathan Lucroy and C Martin Maldonado will cover the catching duties. That leaves 3 spots open.
IF Luis Jimenez looks like he will be backing up Ramirez at third this season and IF Luis Sardiñas and IF Hector Gomez are battling for a utility infield position. 1B Matt Clark is making a strong argument for the last spot, hitting .353 with 2 home runs and 4 RBIs. He is looking to back up Lind, even though the two are very similar. Lind has a questionable health history, so having Clark around can be a good thing. Also, a solid left handed bat on the bench is always a good thing. The Brewers can also carry 5 outfielders, which would have OF Logan Schafer taking the last spot. Or they could opt for a right handed bat and keep IF Jason Rogers.
The rotation is going to consist of Kyle Lohse, Matt Garza, Wily Peralta, Mike Fiers, and Jimmy Nelson. The bullpen already has Francisco Rodriguez, Jonathan Broxton, Jeremy Jeffress, Brandon Kintzler, Will Smith, and Neal Cotts. Chris Perez, Tyler Thornton, and Rob Wooten are battling for the final bullpen spot.
The Brewers won on the road against the Padres, Royals, Rangers, and White Sox. They went 1-1 at home this week, losing to the Giants and beating the Diamondbacks. Braun got his first hit against the Giants and his first home run the next day against the Diamondbacks. Schafer, Lucroy, Braun, Clark, and Elian Herrera each went deep on Sunday against the White Sox.
Weekly Record: 5-1
Season Record: 8-10
I have analyzed my mock drafts and decided that I am going with the pitcher first strategy. Of the 12 times I used that strategy, my projected finish was 1st for 11 of them. The 12th one was a projected second place finish.
I will pick a starting pitcher for at least the first three rounds. I am going for a combination of projected strikeouts and WHIP. My top five SP are Clayton Kershaw, Felix Hernandez, Chris Sale, Max Scherzer, David Price, Johnny Cueto. If any of them are still available in the fourth, I will probably pick them up. I know that Sale will not be available on Opening Day, but he should only miss 1 or 2 starts.
The next two rounds will be for closers. For them, I look at projected saves and WHIP. My top three closers are Craig Kimbrel, Greg Holland, and Aroldis Chapman. Kimbrel and Holland are usually both available in the fourth and fifth, and sometimes the sixth rounds.
Then I fill in the rest of the four pitcher spots and one of the bench spots. I do not take a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.20 or more, and I do not take a closer with a WHIP of 1.10 or more if I can help it.
Once my pitchers are set, I look at the position players. I go after the players with the most projected runs, keeping an eye on their batting average and stolen bases. I will look at catchers first, to see if Buster Posey or Jonathan Lucroy are available. Then I look at 2B, 3B, and SS. 1B is not big on runs or stolen bases. OF is deep in both of those categories, so I tend to get them later.
Once my bench starts filling up, I start to look at what I still need. Yan Gomes is a good later round pickup for catcher. Eric Hosmer has over 70 runs scored projected, which is good for a 1B. Adam Eaton and A.J. Pollock have consistently been available in later rounds.
Overall, my goals for the 2015 projections are:
1000 Runs Scored
200 Stolen Bases
.285 Average
95 Wins
120 Saves
1500 Strikeouts
2.95 ERA
1.10 WHIP
If I can hit those numbers, my team will be hard to beat. I am giving up home runs and runs batted in, but if my pitchers dominate, I only need one or two offensive categories.
My draft starts on Sunday, March 22 at 7:00pm EDT. I will live tweet my draft choices as I make them. You can follow it either by my twitter handle (@djweller72) or by the hashtag #DJDraft.
The Brewers continue to get ready for the season out in Arizona. It has been a busy week for the team. They played 8 games, made one player’s signing official, saw another player retire, and had to deal with illnesses in the clubhouse.
Francisco Rodriguez, or K-Rod, signed his two-year $13 million contract Saturday morning. This is officially the fifth time that the Brewers have acquired Rodriguez. They traded for him late in the 2011 season, offered him arbitration that winter, then signed him as a free agent in as a free agent in 2013, 2014, 2015.
So what keeps him coming back?
“Me and my family are really, really, really happy,” he said. “It’s the place we feel comfortable, it’s the place we want to be,” Rodriguez said. “It’s going to be fun. I know we have to finish what we started last year, with the fall down that we had the last month.”
So it appears that he will be the closer on Opening Day, with Jonathan Broxton setting him up. K-Rod’s signing makes the Brewers bullpen a strength this season.
Right around the same time, Dontrelle Willis announced that he was retiring. Willis was attempting to make the team, but he developed a stiff neck. When the pain got worse instead of better, he decided it was time to hang up his spikes.
In other pitching news, Ron Roenicke made it official that Kyle Lohse will start Opening Day. He will be the first pitcher other than Yovanni Gallardo to start on Opening Day for the Brewers since Jeff Suppan in 2009. Matt Garza and Wily Peralta are scheduled to start games 2 and 3. Mike Fiers and Jimmy Nelson round out the Brewers rotation.
The Brewers were battling a couple of bugs as well as their opponents this week. Jonathan Lucroy and Logan Schafer were among several Brewers who had a bout of pink eye, while Ryan Braun was scratched for Friday’s game with flu-like symptoms. Ron Roenicke, Wily Peralta, and Mike Fiers came down with a respiratory illness. It was not surprising, then, that they took a break from high fiving. They brought back the forearm bumps and air high fives. Well, at least nobody has stepped on anything yet during Spring training like cactus or a scorpion.
As far as the games go, the Brewers lost to the AL Champion Royals 5-4 before finally getting their first win on Tuesday, beating the Reds 5-3. They went on to beat the Giants 6-3 and the Rockies 5-3. Well, look at that, a winning streak! The next two games were 10-5 losses, one to the Mariners and one to the Cubs. On Sunday, Lucroy got his first home run of the spring in a 5-2 loss to the A’s, and Carlos Gomez got his first in a 12-5 loss to the Rangers in split squad action on Sunday.
Even though the Brewers have an awful record, they are still a half game ahead of the World Champion Giants.
Weekly Record: 3-5
Season Record: 3-9
The Brewers started their Cactus League schedule this week. It is an exciting week because they are playing baseball again. The games don’t count (luckily for the Brewers, so far), but it is exciting none the less.
The Brewers and the Cubs were the only teams to finish the week without a win, both at 0-4. That does not mean anything because the teams are not always using the best strategy to win games. For instance, Taylor Williams came in to Saturday’s game in the 8th inning with a 4-1 lead against Texas. He ended up giving up 4 runs in just 2/3 of an inning. The 23 year old pitched in A Ball last year, just his second year in professional baseball. It’s a pretty safe bet that he will not be in the 8th inning of a tight game for the Brewers this year.
Overall, the Brewers lost 3 games by one game, and one by a blowout. The biggest cause for concern so far is that the Brewers committed at least one error in each game, and more than one in the first three games. The fact that the errors are trending downward is a good sign. Also, one of the errors was a great play by Aramis Ramirez. He had a bad throw to first, but they ended up getting the out at home.
Some of the hitters came out of the chute firing. Matt Clark is hitting .556 with a HR. Hector Gomez had a 3 RBI game against the Rangers on Friday. And Martin Maldonado is hitting .600. On the flip side, Ryan Braun, Khris Davis, and Ramirez have not yet gotten their first hit.
On the injury front, the Brewers are doing pretty well. Jonathan Lucroy’s hamstring is healing well and he will increase his running and first base drills. He may even face live pitching in the next week. Adam Lind’s sore back is getting better and he should see some game action this week. Dontrelle Willis, who is in camp on a minor league deal, has a stiff neck. There is no timetable for his Brewers debut at this point.
Many of the prognosticators have the Brewers finishing fourth or fifth. A lot of that is because the NL Central is extremely competitive, but some of it is how they finished last year. It seems that some of them forget that the Brewers were in first place for 150 days. They addressed some of the weaknesses from last year by shoring up the bullpen and getting Lind to man first base. If Braun’s thumb surgery was successful, he will be back to his old self, and Ramirez is hoping to end his career on a high note. Those two bats added to what the Crew did last year will have them in the playoff hunt.
The biggest weakness that the Brewers have right now is starting pitching depth. The starting 5 right now consists of Kyle Lohse, Matt Garza, Wily Peralta, Mike Fiers, and Jimmy Nelson. The top 4 have proven track records (OK, so Fiers has been up and down) and Nelson looks like he is ready for the jump to the big leagues. The problem is that there are no Major League ready back ups. Taylor Jungmann is currently the next man up, but he is only in his 4th professional season. Last year, he started in AA. Tyler Thornburg is being stretched out to be a long reliever and he could also start.
I disagree with most of the experts about the Brewers. I think that they will have a solid season, and I think they will avoid the bad month that they had the last two years (May, 2013 and September, 2014). I think the Brewers will finish…
Sorry, you will have to wait for my Preseason Predictions to see where I think the Brewers will finish.
I have been busy mock drafting. I have completed 18 of them so far, with different strategies and different draft orders. I am planning on drafting twice each at six different draft positions with five different strategies.
My five strategies are:
Pitchers first – Start with starting pitchers. Sort by strikeouts. Take the pitcher with the best WHIP out of the top 15-20. Choose 4 starting pitchers. Then sort by saves. Take 3 closers that have 30 or more saves and the best WHIP. Take one more pitcher, either starter or reliever, that best fits the strategy. Then pick position players with the most runs and stolen bases.
HR first – Pick the ones with 30 or more home runs or 90 or more RBIs. Fill all positions, utility, then pick 2 starting pitchers and 2 relievers with the Pitchers first criteria. Then fill bench with most HR and RBI. Finally, fill the last pitching spots.
Fill Position – Make each position as strong as possible. This often involves taking Clayton Kershaw, an OF or 1B in the first round, a C, 2B and SS withing the top 5. If I don’t get an OF or 1B in the first round, I can get those in later rounds (12 or later), as they are pretty deep. Once I have all of the starting positions, two starting pitchers, and two relief pitchers, I fill the rest based on what I have, building on the strengths.
2SP, 2RP, Starters, SP, RP, Bench – Get the best starting pitchers I can get in the first two rounds, the best closers in the next two rounds, starting position players (including utility players), Fill out the pitchers, then fill the bench.
ADP – Take the player with the highest Average Draft Position. Take the lowest ADP available until the bench or extra pitchers are filled, then fill positions that are still needed.
I am drafting in the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 6th, and 12th. The drafts reverse order every other round, so if you pick 1st in the first round, you will pick 12th in the second. If I have time before my draft on March 22, I will add some other draft positions.
Right now, with a very small amount of data, it looks like the best draft positions are 2nd, 3rd, and 4th, with 1st coming in just a tad worse. The sixth and twelfth positions are the worst so far. Pitching first has produced nothing but projected 1st place finishes, and HR first produced 1st and 2nd place finishes.
What do I plan on doing with this data? Well, I am going to look at what draft position that I get and see what strategy does the best from that position. Then I am going to use that strategy and see what I end up with.
Hey, Brewer fans! How is it going? Are you ready for some baseball? I know I am. It is always exciting when they play the first game of the spring. It is a time of endless hope.
In anticipation of the start of the spring season, I have put together a list of social media links relating to the Brewers: Brewer Social Media Links. The first link is not technically a social media link, but it is the Brewers official web site. I have links to a couple of blogs that I read regularly and I would recommend that you do to. I also have links to the Twitter accounts that are Brewer related. They include current players, former players, minor leaguers, sports reporters and bloggers, and yes, even mascots.
I will do my best to keep this list up to date. Please let me know if there are any additions, subtractions, or just plain mistakes. If you know of another blog that Brewer fans would like, pass it on. I am always looking for more to read about the Brewers.
Go, Brewers, go!
It is the end of February. Pitchers and catchers have reported. Most of the rest of the players have reported. The first Spring Training games start in less than a week. It is a time of new beginnings, of preparations for a long season.
It is also time to make plans for this blog for the season. There will be a lot going on in 2015. There will be a weekly review of the Brewers coming out every Sunday night, starting on April 5. I have (at least) two fantasy teams and I plan on posting weekly updates on them as well. I will give my predictions for each division before the season starts and update those predictions at the All-Star break. I will also review those predictions at the end of the season and make my playoff predictions.
I am learning about advanced statistics and sabermetrics this season, so that will also be covered. I will pass along the knowledge that I gain at various points during the season. It will also be covered in my fantasy team updates, as I plan on using this knowledge to help me make decisions throughout the season.
The other project that I have planed for 2015 is keeping a list of Twitter accounts up to date. This list will include current and former Brewers, coaches, broadcasters, journalists, bloggers, and anybody else that is relevant to the Brewers. I will do my best to keep it current, but if you do find an error or omission, please let me know.
So that is the plan for the 2015 season. There will also be other updates and posts about the Brewers and baseball in general. For now, we wait to hear every baseball fan’s favorite words:
Play Ball!
I finished my first draft last night. It is for a 6-team league called The Legends. The premise of this league is that the teams are supposed to be named after an MLB legend. My team is Brooks Robinson.
I prioritized my list by using the projected 2015 WAR for each player. My draft was pretty successful. I had the second pick and I took advantage of it. I ended up with two of the first three on my list, and five of the first nine. Twenty-three of my picks were in the top 75 on my list. Of the seven that were not in the top 75, all but one were pitchers. My last pick was Jean Segura, just because I am a Brewer fan and I could use another shortstop.
Here is a summary of what I ended up with:
Catchers
Buster Posey
Yadier Molina
Yan Gomes
1B
Freddie Freeman
Joey Votto
Chase Headley
Steve Pearce
Brandon Belt
Buster Posey
2B
Dustin Pedroia
Ben Zobrist
Brett Lawrie
3B
Josh Donaldson
Evan Longoria
Kyle Seager
Chase Headley
Brett Lawrie
Manny Machado
SS
Ben Zobrist
Erick Aybar
Jean Segura
OF
Ben Zobrist
Andrew McCutchen
Carlos Gomez
Jason Heyward
Steve Pearce
Kole Calhoun
SP
Yu Darvish
Hisashi Iwakuma
Jeff Samardzija
Alex Wood
Cliff Lee
Gio Gopnzalez
RP
Mark Melancon
Alex Wood
Huston Street
Jonathan Broxton
All in all I am happy with this roster to start the season. According to the draft analysis, my team is projected to finish fifth out of six teams. My biggest problem is pitching, but we will see how that turns out.
I have taken an interest in some of the more advanced statistics in baseball recently. It makes sense, after all, as it is a combination of math and baseball. It is hard to believe that I have taken this long to get in to it.
One of the ways that I am going to delve in to this is through fantasy baseball. I have signed up for two leagues, one that drafts in March, and one that drafts tonight. I am going to use 2 totally different strategies when it comes to the draft. In the first league, I am going to use the 2015 WAR as projected by FanGraphs.com. I have not yet decided on what my strategy will be in the other league.
For those that don’t know, WAR stands for Wins Above Replacement. It is a complex stat that attempts to calculate how many more games a team will win with a certain player as opposed to a Major League ready AAA player.
The league that I am using WAR as my primary strategy is a small, 6-team league. Each team will have a catcher, first baseman, second baseman, third baseman, shortstop, 3 outfielders, 3 utility players, 3 starting pitchers, and 3 relief pitchers starting each week, as well as 3 more pitchers and 10 more players on the bench, for a total of 30 players.
I know that using WAR like this is probably not the best strategy. For one thing, WAR takes in to account many stats that do not count in most fantasy leagues. For another, the positions are not evenly represented. The first relief pitcher does not appear on my list until number 178. I will have to make adjustments, considering that there are only 180 players being drafted.
I will keep an eye on which positions are filling up and which ones I still need to cover. If I have to make adjustments to cover a position, I will still go with the player with the highest WAR at that position.
With that being said, I gotta run. The draft starts in about 2 hours. I will post an update with the results of the draft as soon as I can.
DJ's Baseball Blog 